Why do so many of us end up in the desert?
My brother-in-law can answer in one word. February. He traded snow shovels for a patio in Henderson and never looked back.
What he did not trade away is the electric bill. In July his air conditioner runs from lunch until the late news.
That is your read this afternoon. The states pulling in retirees must keep that power on. Their summer evenings run long and hot.
Nevada is a good place to watch both stories at once. The state grew from about 3.10 million people at the 2020 census to about 3.28 million by mid-2025.
It also sits on a lot of underground heat. Geothermal power is electricity made from hot water and steam pulled up from deep rock, and it runs day and night.
On Monday, October 20, the Bureau of Land Management auctions geothermal leases across 10 Nevada counties. Three numbers set the scale.
25%
Nevada’s share of all U.S. utility-scale geothermal power in 2024
265,691
Acres of federal land offered in Monday’s lease sale
83
Parcels going up for bid, the next step in a long build
The asymmetry sits in the clock. Solar already supplies about 31% of Nevada’s power, and it fades right when the evening air conditioners peak.
Natural gas covers most of the rest, 53% in 2024. Geothermal fills the hours the sun cannot, and it does not care what the gas market does.
The retirees arrive on a schedule. The heat under them has been sitting there for a very long time, waiting for a lease and a drill rig.
Where the cohort’s money sits this quarter, and where the desert move fits in the order.
Now the honest limit. A lease is a ticket to explore. Federal geothermal leases run for an initial 10-year period. Plenty of parcels never become a power plant.
Drilling deep rock is expensive and slow. Geothermal still supplies only a sliver of America’s electricity, and a few good auctions do not change that by next summer.
The arithmetic
Nevada population: U.S. Census Bureau, 3,104,614 at the April 1, 2020 census and 3,282,188 estimated for July 1, 2025 (about 3.10 million and 3.28 million). Geothermal lease sale: Bureau of Land Management, competitive geothermal lease sale on October 20, 2026, 83 parcels totaling 265,691 acres in 10 Nevada counties; leases issued for an initial 10-year period. Nevada electricity: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Nevada State Profile (June 2025): in 2024 Nevada produced 25% of the nation’s utility-scale geothermal generation, second only to California; solar supplied 31% and natural gas 53% of in-state generation. The brother-in-law in Henderson is an illustration.
Watch Monday’s results from the BLM. The number to look for is how many of the 83 parcels draw a bid, and how high. A crowded auction tells you the developers already know who is moving to the desert next.
Andrew
Boomers Trade is written by someone getting older right alongside you, and watching who profits from it.
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