My wife booked us a cruise in March. We sail in January. The money left our account in March.

I did not think about that for a single second at the time. Then I ran the arithmetic this week and laughed at myself.

Ten months. Somebody else’s balance sheet. My money.

Start with the aisle. The trip is the first stage this generation spends on, while the knees work and the calendar is open. The front of the wave is leaving it now, which is the whole premise of this letter.

You would expect the cruise business to be nervous about that. It is not. Last year set a global record at 37.2 million passengers, and the industry group now expects 42 million a year by 2028.

Two things replaced you. Younger passengers, for one. About a third of cruisers are now under 40.

 

That third figure is the other thing that replaced you. It is the one worth your afternoon.

A cruise is paid for in advance. Deposit at booking, balance months before you board. So the company gets the cash long before it burns a gallon of fuel or hires a waiter.

Now stack that on yesterday’s arithmetic. Short-term money earns near 3.75% today, the top of the Fed’s range. Your fare sits there earning it for somebody else, and you paid nothing for the privilege of lending it.

On a $6,000 booking made ten months out, that is a couple hundred dollars of interest. It went to the ship.

Where the cohort’s money sits this quarter, and the stage it is finishing with.

The catch runs against the operator too, and it is a real one. Money you sent ten months early is money you cannot reach. You are an unsecured creditor of a shipping company, and 2020 taught this cohort what that means in a bad year.

The lines are also carrying heavy debt from that same stretch. A booking window this long is a promise about a customer’s health and plans a year out. Some of those promises will not hold.

Read the cancellation terms before the deposit, not after. That is the entire practical lesson here.

The arithmetic

Passengers: Cruise Lines International Association, 2026 State of the Global Cruise Industry report, released April 14, 2026. A record 37.2 million passengers sailed in 2025, up from 34.6 million in 2024, with the association projecting 42 million a year by 2028; the fleet stands at 325 ships and roughly 690,000 berths for 2026; capacity is growing 2% to 3% a year, behind demand; booking windows have stretched to nine to 18 months for many travelers; close to 90% of cruisers say they will sail again, the highest reading the association has recorded; about one-third of cruisers are now under 40. American passengers: AAA forecast of October 20, 2025, 21.7 million Americans on ocean cruises in 2026 against 20.7 million in 2025. Short-term rates: Federal Reserve target range of 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, held on July 29, 2026. The interest figure on a $6,000 fare held for ten months is Boomers Trade’s own arithmetic at that rate, before tax, and is an illustration rather than a quoted yield. The 2020 reference is to the industry-wide sailing halt and the refund disputes that followed.

 

Book the trip. I did, and I am not going to pretend a couple hundred dollars of interest is the point of a January sailing. The thing to watch is the booking window. An industry that can ask for money a year ahead, and get it every time, is holding the strongest position in business. It holds that position over you.

Andrew

Boomers Trade is written by someone getting older right alongside you, and watching who profits from it.