Ask somebody who retired to Phoenix what a house costs to run in August. The answer comes back in dollars, not in degrees. Every time.

The national figure this year is $792. That is average household spending on electricity from June through September. The count comes from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association.

Last summer it was $717. In 2020 it was around $570.

Two things are pushing it, and both of them keep pushing.

The price of the electricity itself is up. The Energy Information Administration has residential power averaging about 18.2 cents a kilowatt hour this year, roughly 5 percent above last year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics measured the electricity index rising 5.9 percent over the twelve months to May.

And the house needs more of it. Hotter summers mean the compressor runs longer, so the meter turns faster at the higher price.

Here is where it stops being a comfort question. NEADA flags the health risk in its own report, and it names seniors first.

A 78 year old body handles a hot room worse than a 40 year old one does. So the thermostat is not really discretionary in this cohort. It is closer to a prescription with a meter attached.

The cohort chose those states for the weather. The weather turned into the invoice. On a schedule.

And there is a second bidder in line for that power now. It is not a household.

Data centers took 4.7 percent of American electricity in 2024. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory now projects 9.5 to 15.3 percent by 2030. That is the AI build, and it lands on the same grid that cools your living room.

The strain is already showing in the collection numbers.

One in six American households is behind on a utility bill. Utilities shut off electric service about 13.5 million times in 2024. Household utility debt is on track for somewhere between $23 and $25 billion by the end of this year.

There is a federal program for these bills. LIHEAP is funded at $4.1 billion. NEADA is asking Congress for $7 billion.

Meanwhile the utilities are asking too. Investor owned utilities filed for $18 billion in rate increases last year, the most since the mid 1980s.

Where the cohort’s money sits this quarter, and the bill that comes before all of it.

The honest limit here is politics. A utility cannot simply pick its price. Rates get argued in a public proceeding, and a commission with elections behind it decides.

Of that $18 billion asked for last year, regulators approved 66 percent of the dollar value. A good business, and not a blank check.

The other limit is collection. Arrears of $23 billion are a receivable, and a good part of that will never be paid. Shutoff rules in a heat wave are getting stricter, for reasons anybody would understand.

So the moat is real and the ceiling is real, and both are set by people you can vote for.

The arithmetic

National Energy Assistance Directors Association and the Center for Energy Poverty and Climate, summer cooling report of June 8, 2026: average residential electricity spending of about $792 from June through September, up 10.5 percent from $717 in 2025 and close to 40 percent above the 2020 level of roughly $570, with the Mountain region taking the largest regional increase and the South Atlantic next. The same report counts one in six households behind on utility bills, about 13.5 million service disconnections in 2024, and projected household utility debt of $23 billion to $25 billion by the end of 2026, and it asks Congress to raise LIHEAP from $4.1 billion to $7 billion for fiscal 2027. Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook for the residential price of about 18.2 cents a kilowatt hour in 2026 and for 1,210 cooling degree days this summer, about 2 percent above the ten year average. Bureau of Labor Statistics for the 5.9 percent rise in the electricity index over the twelve months ending in May 2026. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2026 update, for data centers at 4.7 percent of United States electricity in 2024 and a projected 9.5 to 15.3 percent by 2030, revised up from the 6.7 to 12 percent by 2028 in its December 2024 report. Columbia University commentary of June 23, 2026, drawing on Berkeley Lab data, for the $18 billion in rate increases sought by investor owned utilities last year, the largest since the mid 1980s, and for regulators approving 66 percent of the requested dollar value.

 

Two things to watch, and they land on the same bill. The rate case filed in your own county, which sets what a kilowatt hour costs next year. And the data center announcements, which decide how long the queue is ahead of your thermostat. The weather you moved for is a line item now. It gets read every month, in your name.

Andrew

Boomers Trade is written by someone getting older right alongside you, and watching who profits from it.