On the first of January this year the oldest of us turned eighty. There was no announcement.
The 1946 cohort simply crossed a line the Census printed decades ago.
Almost everything written about this generation moving is about the first move. Florida, Arizona, the Carolinas. Picked on weather and on the tax line.
The Census has been counting the other one.
In a typical year, 6.2 percent of Americans over sixty-five changed address. That single figure hides the thing worth knowing.
Break it out by age. The rate climbs, and the distance collapses.
The first move
Age 65 to 74. About 5.9 percent move in a year. Of those moves, 22.3 percent cross a state line. Weather, taxes, a smaller house, eighteen months of looking.
The second move
Age 85 and over. About 8.4 percent move in a year. Only 14.5 percent cross a state line. Nearly two thirds never leave the county.
So the oldest group moves the most. It also moves the shortest distance.
That second move is a discharge plan with furniture.
A first move takes eighteen months. You visit, you compare, you walk away from two places you did not like.
The second one takes about a week. Somebody is in a hospital bed. The discharge planner, whose job is to get that bed back, wants an address by Friday.
A family with a week to decide takes whatever list it is handed.
That list comes from somewhere. Usually from a broker.
Memory care is the locked wing for people with dementia, and a bed in one is the scarcest thing on any list. A family hunting for one at speed calls a placement service. It sounds like a directory. It works like a sales channel.
Where the cohort’s money sits this quarter, read through the address it sits at.
The catch there sits in who pays. A broker is paid by the community that fills the room.
So the list a family receives is the list of places that pay to be on it. That fee finds its way into the rent eventually.
And no broker can place anyone into a county that has no open bed.
The arithmetic
Share of Americans 65 and over who changed address in a typical year, 6.2 percent, and the rates by age of 5.9 percent at 65 to 74, 6.0 percent at 75 to 84 and 8.4 percent at 85 and over: US Census Bureau analysis of American Community Survey data for 2015 to 2019 by Peter Mateyka and Wan He. Share of older movers who stayed inside the same county, 58 percent overall and 64 percent among those 85 and over, and the state-to-state shares of 22.3 percent at 65 to 74 and 14.5 percent at 85 and over: the same analysis. The oldest baby boomers reaching 80 during 2026: Pew Research Center, 9 January 2026. The broker commission of roughly one month’s rent is the industry’s common structure rather than a surveyed figure, and Boomers Trade marks it as its own read.
My own first move is still a daydream. I read listings the way you read a menu at a restaurant you have not booked. The second move is the one worth planning for. Call your county this week and ask how many memory-care beds it holds. One phone call. That number will still be true in ten years, and by then it will be about you.
Andrew
Boomers Trade is written by someone getting older right alongside you, and watching who profits from it.
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