A friend of mine got the letter in the spring.

His doctor of twenty-two years was retiring. The practice thanked him for his loyalty. It listed three other doctors, and none of them were taking new patients.

He is 67. His doctor is 69. They had been getting older together the whole time, and neither of them did the math.

The math is public.

By 2036 the population over 65 is projected to grow 34.1%. The group over 75 grows 54.7%. The whole country grows 8.4%.

Older people need more care and see more doctors. That is the demand side, and it runs on birthdays.

Now look at the other chair in the exam room.

Among the doctors seeing patients today, 20% are 65 or older. Another 22% are between 55 and 64.

Put those together and you get the number to keep: 42%.

That is the share of the workforce standing where you and I are standing, on the same calendar.

The medical colleges put the gap in plain numbers.

 

Nobody can print a doctor on short notice. Training one takes the better part of a decade after college.

So the fix that arrives first is the one that stretches the doctors we already have.

Next time you sit down in an exam room, look for a phone on the counter.

More and more practices run what they call an ambient scribe. That is software that listens to the visit and writes the doctor’s notes afterward. The doctor reads the draft, fixes it, and signs.

One large medical group in California counted 15,791 hours of paperwork saved in its first year of use. That is time a doctor can hand back to patients.

Where our money sits this quarter, and what it runs into next.

The savings are smaller than the brochures say.

One study followed about 1,800 clinicians at five academic medical centers. The software saved about 16 minutes of paperwork for every eight hours of care. That is roughly one extra short visit a day.

It helps. It does not train a single new doctor. And every draft still needs a tired physician to catch its mistakes before they land in your chart.

You can also say no to the recording. It is your visit.

The arithmetic

Population growth to 2036 of 34.1% for ages 65 and older, 54.7% for 75 and older and 8.4% overall; physicians 65 or older at 20% and ages 55 to 64 at 22% of the clinical workforce; and a projected shortage of 13,500 to 86,000 physicians by 2036: Association of American Medical Colleges, The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections From 2021 to 2036, March 2024. The 42% is Boomers Trade’s own sum of the 20% and 22% figures. The 15,791 documentation hours saved: The Permanente Medical Group, as reported by Advisory Board, February 2026. About 1,800 clinicians at five academic medical centers from 2023 to 2025, and about 16 minutes saved per eight hours of patient care: STAT News, April 2026. The one extra short visit a day is Boomers Trade’s own estimate, assuming a visit of about 15 minutes. The friend, his age of 67 and his doctor’s age of 69 come from one family’s story.

 

So when you book your next checkup, ask the front desk two things. How old is my doctor’s practice, in doctor years? And who takes over when she leaves? The answer tells you more about your next ten years than any headline. Your doctor has a birthday too.

Andrew

Boomers Trade is written by someone getting older right alongside you, and watching who profits from it.